Which one will win? HD DVD has the support of Microsoft and Intel. On other fields, that’s probably enough to win… but not here. Blu-ray has Sony, and, apparently, virtually all the major movie studios.
Apparently, Bill Gates himself feels that he’s losing, and is throwing a tantrum. Will he throw a chair, too? 
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I’ve been watching this fight for a while, mostly seeing the opinions on EnGadget.com, and this article from Businessweek is the most complete one, until now.
Definitely, Microsoft doesn’t want Blu-Ray to win, for all the reasons put on the article, but…I guess Bill Gates is going to let this one down, because it’s too much disadvantage.
We’ll see more in the nearby months.
For me, Blu-Ray is the winner, because Sony’s not going to lose this opportunity, since they lost the battles for VHS and DVD, in previous years.